(Photo by Jeff Chiu/AP)

As the trade speculation around Erik Karlsson continues to drag on deeper into the summer, the Pittsburgh Penguins seem to (slightly) be the front runner in landing the Norris Trophy winning defenseman. 

But the Carolina Hurricanes still pose a viable threat to the Penguins in their hopes to acquire him, and the Sharks do not necessarily seem to be in a rush about trading him. 

But while we wait to see if Karlsson will be wearing black and yellow this upcoming season, I wanted to do a deep dive into his time in San Jose. 

The Trade From Ottawa

Erik Karlsson was a star in Ottawa for many years. Their first round pick back in 2008, Karlsson had blossomed to an offensively gifted star on the blueline for the Senators. By 2014, he was named the team’s captain, and had established himself as one of the best offensive defenseman in the league. 

His final few years in Ottawa were filled with highs and lows. Karlsson had dragged the Senators to double overtime in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017, where he would eventually fall to the Penguins of all teams. News would eventually break that Karlsson was essentially playing on one leg during the playoffs, making his performance all the more heroic. 

The following season, even after acquiring Matt Duchene, the Senators absolutely collapsed, and management had trended towards the idea of a rebuild. This all came amidst several personal hardships for Karlsson and his family, including the whole situation with Mike Hoffman’s girlfriend. 

In the end, the Senators thought it would be best to trade the franchise icon Karlsson, and in September of 2018, they sent him to San Jose. 

First Four Years In San Jose

Karlsson, prior to this season, had a very different story as a Shark as opposed to a Senator. His point totals plummeted, and he had a difficult time staying healthy and in the lineup. 

His first season in San Jose, 2018-19, Karlsson appeared in just 53 games with 45 points. The following season had similar results, except with a few more games and a few less points. He simply wasn’t the Erik Karlssom that he was in Ottawa. 

Karlsson did manage to stay healthy during almost the whole Covid-shortened 2020-21 season, playing 52 of 56 available games, but he had just 22 points, a very poor season by his standard. 

He started to rebound in 2021-22, with 35 points in 50 games, but he still was not the Karlsson he once was. Many may have begun to wonder if perhaps his best days were long behind him, and they would have had good reason to think that. 

At the same time Karlsson’s production was tumbling down an ever-steepening hill, so were the Sharks’ playoff hopes. The Sharks hadn’t made the playoffs since Karlsson’s first year in San Jose, and could never finish higher than sixth in the Pacific Division any year after. 

The results just weren’t there, for Karlsson and for the team. In his defense, he had dealt with major injury hurdles during most of those seasons, but that was a separate concern in its own right. 

A Massive Change In Fortune

The Sharks had begun to make some changes regarding their roster, including a big change on the blue line. Brent Burns, a long-time defenseman in San Jose who played a similar game to Karlsson’s, was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes. 

With Burns now out of the picture in San Jose, Karlsson was left as the guy on the blue line for the team, and he performed out of his mind in that role. 

Karlsson put up 101 points in a full 82 games for San Jose, an effort that won him the Norris Trophy. And herein lies an intriguing observation with Karlsson: he performs much better when he is the guy. 

Karlsson is the anti-Phil Kessel, he plays better when he is designated as the star for the team. His first season without Burns on the team, Karlsson’s point totals jumped an astounding 66 points from the season prior, and his 101 total was 50+ points better than his previous high total as a Shark. 

This observation is further backed up by his time in Ottawa. For a large portion of his career up north, he was the guy on Ottawa’s defensive units, and as such, Karlsson regularly put up point totals in the 70s, and never had a season below 62 points. 

Interestingly enough, over in Carolina in his first season without Karlsson, Burns put up his highest point total (61) since Karlsson’s first year in San Jose back in 2018-19. 

So what does that mean if the Penguins acquired Karlsson? They already have Kris Letang. 

You certainly aren’t moving Letang; they will be on the same team. Does Karlsson find a way to keep his point totals up even on a team where he will not be the only guy? 

It is a reasonable question to ask. It’s a given to assume he will regress from his 101 point campaign, but by how much? Will he fall back to Senators-era Karlsson, or (mostly) Sharks-era Karlsson? 

A pairing of Letang and Karlsson would be a defensive nightmare…in that no defense would be played. So they likely end up on different pairings. How will that impact Karlsson? 

There’s also the issue of the power play. Karlsson scored 27 points on the power play last season, but there’s only one top unit on the Penguins’ power play. Would Karlsson bump Letang out of his spot there? Unlikely, but possible. If it doesn’t happen, however, how would Karlsson feel about having to quarterback the second power play unit, which rarely sees enough ice time to generate any real traction on the ice. 

Make no mistake, I am not against the idea of acquiring Karlsson. I don’t bring any of these points up in an effort to suggest that the Penguins should not acquire him. In fact, I think a big splash addition like Karlsson is what you need to do to cap off the very small Stanley Cup window this core may still have. 

But there are some reasonable questions to ponder as Kyle Dubas looks for ways to swing a deal to bring him in.