Mathew Barzal has had an incredible career to date. His offensive skill is impeccable, his defense is solid, and his pure talent as a center is something that every NHL team dreams of. 

He is a two time NHL All Star. He was the Calder Trophy winner as league’s best rookie.

And he’s someone the Pittsburgh Penguins could have had. 

Jim Rutherford was a great general manager for the Penguins. He revived the stalling Crosby-Malkin-Letang era in Pittsburgh. He brought in a stellar head coach in Mike Sullivan. He built up the Penguins roster to back to back Stanley Cups. 

But as with any NHL GM, he was not without his gaffes. Some of which were evident almost immediately, others took some time to draw out. This is one that took some time. 

To go back to how the Penguins accidentally let Barzal slip through their fingers, we need to travel back in time to the 2014-15 season. The Penguins are battling, like they always are, for a playoff spot. Only this time, things aren’t as certain. An incredibly streaky team needed all the help they could get as they looked to punch their ticket to the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs. 

Rutherford, then in his first season as Penguins general manager, was eager to make changes to the lineup. He had already completed a trade the previous month that brought in Rob Klinkhammer and sent away Philip Samuelsson. 

But in early January, Rutherford had his sights set on another player: Edmonton’s David Perron. 

Perron was having an alright season with the Oilers, 19 points in 38 games, but Edmonton was more than willing to move on from him. 

Why? Because this is the 2014-15 season, and the winner of this year’s draft lottery would land Connor McDavid. Multiple teams, like the Buffalo Sabres, had been all but openly tanking for McDavid. And the rebuilding Oilers were hoping to snag hockey’s next icon as well. 

On January 2nd, the Oilers agreed to a trade that sent Perron to the Penguins for a first round pick and defenseman Rob Klinkhammer, the same Klinkhammer that Rutherford had picked up just a month prior. 

If anything, this trade helped prove how unafraid Rutherford was about moving on from players in a hurry; Rutherford would give Tanner Pearson the Klinkhammer treatment just a few years after. Aside from the big three, no one was ever truly safe.

Perron would be one of several additions made to the Penguins lineup, but even with the new acquisitions, the Penguins stumbled dramatically towards the end of the season, and were in serious risk of missing the playoffs.

The team lost 7 of their final 10 games, including a 5 game losing streak that would only end with a win during the final game of the season. 

At 43-27-12, the Penguins had just barely scraped their way in. 

However, it was all almost for nothing. The Penguins were dispatched by the New York Rangers in 5 games during the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

David Perron’s campaign with Pittsburgh was a little underwhelming. He had 22 points in 43 games with the Penguins after the trade, but in the postseason, he was almost a non-factor, registering just 1 assist. 

Given the Penguins record, their draft pick, now in Edmonton’s hands, became 16th overall in the upcoming draft. As luck would have it for the Oilers, however, they won the draft lottery, landing the legendary McDavid.

Feeling a bit more adventurous now that they held first overall, the Oilers traded the 16th overall pick to the New York Islanders as part of a package. 

Of all three teams involved here, Edmonton definitely is the loser. 

Not only did the Oilers trade the 16th overall pick, but they added the 33rd overall pick in the deal as well, sending them to Long Island in exchange for defenseman Griffin Reinhart. 

A former fourth overall pick by the Islanders back in 2012, Reinhart was still very highly rated when the Oilers swung the deal to get him. He was projected to be an amazing top four defenseman. 

Unfortunately for Reinhart, things just never panned out for him at the NHL level. Over the course of his career, he played just 37 NHL games, spread out over the course of three seasons. Only 29 of those games came with the Oilers. He has since retired. 

With Pittsburgh’s first round pick, the Islanders selected, you guessed it, Barzal, who has since gone on to be a star center in the Islanders organization. 

As for the Penguins, what happens if they keep that pick? What happens if Barzal has been in Pittsburgh all this time? 

He broke out during the 2017-18 season, where he tallied 85 points in 82 games to lead the Islanders. After captain and center John Tavares left in free agency this offseason, Barzal suddenly had a much bigger role to fill on the team, which he has done quite admirably. 

Over the course of his NHL career to date, Barzal has appeared in 420 games, scoring 362 points in the process. Although he has not yet been able to beat that 85 point rookie campaign, his points per game has never fallen below 0.76, showing he is a very consistent point scorer. 

But here’s the thing about Barzal: he plays for the Islanders. 

After Tavares departed for Toronto and the Islanders were left for dead, they brought in recent Stanley Cup winner Barry Trotz as the team’s new head coach, and adopted a very defense-first style of play. That work ethic and very team-first approach launched the Islanders to a shocking playoff berth in 2019, where they swept the Penguins in the first round. In that series, Barzal had 5 points in 4 games. 

That defensive (and at times, very boring) style of play is something the Islanders have only embraced more and more in the years since. 

That style might win games, but it limits the firepower of their stars. It’s no coincidence that Barzal’s highest point total in the NHL was the one season where the Islanders played a more open style. Frankly, it’s impressive that Barzal has been able to put up the kind of totals he has on a team that has basically abandoned any kind of offense. 

If Barzal is a Penguin, however, do his offensive numbers see a jump? Is he a point per game player (or better) every season? 

It might be a stretch to say that Barzal’s production increases that much, but placing him on a team that is more focused on scoring could allow Barzal to put up stronger goal and point totals. 

With Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin still taking the top two center spots on this team, Barzal likely sees top-six time as a winger instead, but would that be a bad thing? 

If any of you remember that All Star Game a few years back, where Crosby and Barzal were linemates for the Metropolitan Division, the two had an insane amount of chemistry almost instantly. Imagine a Barzal–Crosby–Guentzel first line for the Penguins. 

At just 26 years old, he would also fill a desperate need for young talent on the team. The Penguins don’t have anybody who can do what Barzal does at his age. And when the trio does retire, and you need to start looking ahead to the future, maybe Barzal means the rebuild doesn’t have to be as bad.

Or, in a more likely scenario, Barzal nets you back a pretty nice package of picks and prospects when you trade him to a contending team. 

Of course, all this comes with a flipside: get Mathew Barzal, maybe give up a Stanley Cup or two. 

Even though David Perron didn’t work out the best in Pittsburgh, what Jim Rutherford was able to net in return for him directly impacted the Penguins’ chances of winning back to back in 2016 and 2017. 

Almost one year after the Penguins acquired him for that first round pick, Rutherford sent Perron to the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for speedy winger Carl Hagelin. 

Hagelin would go on to play an ultra pivotal role in Pittsburgh’s Stanley Cup wins, forming one third of the unforgettable HBK line with Phil Kessel and Nick Bonino. 

Hagelin up 16 points in 24 playoff games during the 2016 run, and while he didn’t have nearly as many points in an injury-riddled 2017 run, he scored the empty netter to seal the Game 6 win for Pittsburgh. 

If the Penguins still have that 16th overall pick, they never get Perron. And if they never get Perron, they never get Hagelin. And if they never get Hagelin, do they win back to back Stanley Cups? 

Hagelin’s role not only as an HBK member but also as an individual player cannot be understated, and if he isn’t there, the Penguins have a much harder road to one cup, let alone two. 

Barzal being a Penguin eliminates the existence of the HBK line, and also leaves a massive void in the Penguins lineup. Whether Rutherford would have been able to find someone in this alternate timeline is something we will never know. 

It is possible that the Penguins find someone who maybe isn’t Hagelin-level, but fairs well enough to help the Penguins win in this alternate timeline. And in that one, Barzal being a Penguin means all the more.

But that’s no guarantee, and even if Barzal is with the team, Hagelin’s absence significantly alters two memorable Stanley Cup runs for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

(Featured photo by Dennis Schneidler/USA TODAY Sports)