History is such a funny thing, ain’t it? Ok, well, maybe football history is, anyways.
It’s rare that you can pinpoint exactly one single play where a quarterback lost his job. One single play that determined a quarterback’s fate with his team.
And yet, this exact moment has happened twice for Mitch Trubisky.
On Monday, the Steelers announced that third string quarterback Mason Rudolph would get the start ahead of Trubisky, who is once again relegated to the bench.
He was benched in favor of Rudolph in the dying minutes of Saturday’s 30-13 beatdown in Indianapolis by the Colts, and from there, the writing was on the wall.
His replacement yet again comes as the 29 year old played poorly in three straight games for the Steelers. Trubisky came in for an injured Kenny Pickett midway through the team’s loss to the Arizona Cardinals, then started in the loss to the New England Patriots, and once again in the Colts loss.
Ironically, his game against the Colts was probably his best outing in this three game losing streak. That’s not to say he looked good against the Colts, it’s more to underscore how bad he was previously.
Trubisky went 16/23 for 169 yards, 2 touchdowns (1 of which was rushing), and 2 interceptions. That interceptions stat was likely the final straw for Tomlin, who just could not bring himself to stick with Mitch in the following week.
For a Steelers team that emphasizes playing safe with the football, multiple picks in a game will not fly. It’s the reason that Kenny Pickett has stayed in the good graces of the coaching staff, despite putting up middling offensive numbers in other areas.
However, one of Trubisky’s interceptions should have went the other way. And with how big of a play that turned out to be, did it alter the future of Trubisky’s time with the Steelers?
On a 1st and 16 from the 50-yard line, Mitch throws a deep shot down the field, hoping to connect with George Pickens.
The Steelers were up 13-7 at the time, and were looking to quell Indianapolis’s momentum after they had scored a touchdown themselves.
If Trubisky connects, it’s a massive gain for the Steelers. But instead, disaster strikes. The pass ends up in the hands of Nick Cross, who intercepts the pass at the Indy 11-yard line and runs it back 18 yards.
This pass goes against Trubisky on the stat sheet, but this is a pass that George Pickens simply has to come down with. Instead, Pickens has the ball essentially stolen away from him in the air.
If he was a player that routinely struggled to make these kinds of catches, this result would be a bit more understandable. Not necessarily acceptable, but understandable.
However, one of Pickens’s strongest attributes in his scouting reports was his ability to make contested catches. His biggest strength was his ability to make 50/50 passes look more like 90/10 passes if he is involved.
This game is massively different if Pickens comes down with that catch. Not only does it change the final score (not that it would have mattered), but it also drastically changes Trubisky’s stat line. Compare these two:
Trubisky without the catch: 16/23, 169 yards, 1 TD, 1 rush TD, 2 INTS
Trubisky with the catch: 17/23, 208 yards, 1 TD, 1 rush TD, 1 INT
The second one looks a heck of a lot better, doesn’t it?
His late game interception (ironically, also intended for Pickens), was a different story. There’s no getting around the fact that this was a brutal throw.
Trubisky well overthrows his receiver on just a super poor pass.
But, if you take his stats in a vacuum, and that first interception is replaced with a catch, I truly believe that Trubisky is still the starter heading into next Saturday’s home finale.
Let me be clear, I am not advocating for Mitch to still be the starter. Anyone who has lurked around this website long enough knows I have several articles advocating for Rudolph to get the nod ahead of Trubisky.
Rather, I find this particular play interesting, because like I said, I believe that Mitch remains the starter for this week’s upcoming game. And theoretically, we don’t know what happens next (even though we all know it would be pretty bad).
Most fascinating to me, however, is that this is not the first “what if” play in Trubisky’s Steelers career.
I touched on this a little in a piece I wrote after Diontae Johnson’s touchdown drought mercifully came to an end, but let’s go more into the details of this next play.
Back before the start of the 2022 season, after drafting Pitt QB Kenny Pickett in the first round of the draft, there was already a bit of a quarterback controversy in town before the first snap of the season.
The retirement of Ben Roethlisberger left a huge void at football’s most important position. Prior to drafting Pickett, the Steelers had also signed Mitch Trubisky, and it was widely thought that the best quarterback in training camp would win the job come September.
Instead, that “competition” was nonexistent; Trubisky was handed the job from the beginning and essentially told “don’t F it up.”
Trubisky led three uninspiring, but not god awful games for the Steelers, who went 1-2 in their opening stretch. We all noted that Mitch seemed to be playing afraid, as if he was constantly looking over his shoulder at a first round QB waiting in the wings.
That fear of Trubisky’s came to life in Week 4, when he was benched at halftime in favor of Pickett, who made his NFL debut in the second half of that game.
The crowd roared for Pickett’s presence as a dejected Trubisky tried his best to be supportive.
But there was a play that took place right beforehand that could have negated all that.
Down 10-0 to the New York Jets midway through the second quarter, Trubisky throws a deep ball to Diontae Johnson in the endzone, whose foot is literally centimeters out of bounds to deny them a touchdown.
This actually was a beautiful pass by Trubisky, but unfortunately it does not count.
Trubisky gets sacked on the following play, and the Steelers are forced to settle for a field goal on this drive. They tack on a second kick to make it a 10-6 ball game at halftime.
At halftime, Mike Tomlin famously decided to make the change from Trubisky to Pickett.
But just like that first pass to Pickens, I believe Trubisky stays in this game if this one pass to Johnson results in a touchdown. Below are Trubisky’s stat lines without the Johnson catch, and with it at halftime:
Trubisky without the catch: 7/13, 84 yards, 0 TDs, 1NT
Trubisky with the catch: 8/13, 105 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
It’s of note too that Trubisky’s sack number falls from 3 to 2 if Johnson’s catch stands, as the following play would have never happened.
How much longer Trubisky could have kept the job at the middling rate he was performing at is forever an unknown, but just like the Pickens one, I believe Mitch stays in the QB spot if one simple throw goes his way.
If that catch stands, it’s a 10-10 game at the half; it’s hard to bench your QB if you’re not even losing.
These plays are eerily similar to me as I analyze them back to back. In both plays, Trubisky just needed his receivers to do a little more. Johnson at least caught his pass, but couldn’t get that second foot down. Pickens, meanwhile, got Moss’d by the defender.
For Mitch, it’s the second time in his Steelers career he has been benched in favor of someone else.
In both cases, it was due to poor play that even Tomlin couldn’t stomach anymore. In both cases, it was for someone who had little to no NFL experience. In both cases, his replacement found massive amounts of support in his place.
Even Mason Rudolph, who has been banished to the practice squad and emergency quarterback spot by Tomlin for years, has finally found fans in his corner as Trubisky faltered in place of the injured Kenny Pickett.
It’s one of several oddities in Mitch Trubisky’s confusing NFL career, and for the quarterback himself, I’m sure two moments in his career he’d love to forget.
(Featured image by Justin Casterline)
Fifth Avenue Sports 
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