With the second half of the season about to get underway, the Pittsburgh Pirates will be looking to stay in the playoff race after clawing their way back to .500, entering the All Star break at 48-48.

The first (little more than) half of the season saw some members of the team really exceed expectations, but also some others really underwhelm. So with that in mind, I tried to take my best guess at which Pirates will improve or regress down the stretch for the team.

I included all members who are on the current roster, as well as some players who are on the Injured List. The only reason were a player wouldn’t be on the list would be a lack of playing time (ex. Joshua Palacios) or they are injured and making an improve/regress decision was too close to call (ex. Hunter Stratton).

Paul Skenes: Regress

The man who has made baseball history in more way than one is coming off an 11-start first half has a 6-0 record, 1.90 ERA, 0.920 WHIP, and 12.1 K/9 stat line to his name. He has been nothing short of unbelievable, and was one of the Pirates’ All Star representatives down in Arlington this week.

Skenes was such a tough player to decide on. He has yet to show me anything that would suggest that he won’t be able to keep this electric season going, but I just have a gut feeling that, even if it’s ever so slightly, his stats will decrease. And by that I mean, maybe instead of a 1.90 ERA, it’s 2.00 at year’s end.

Maybe it’s just the cynic in me, and I certainly hope he proves me very wrong.

Carmen Mlodzinski: Improve

Carmen Mlodzinski had a very rocky start to his season, which actually began in Triple-A. His minor league stats with Indianapolis weren’t all that pretty at the time of his recall, and his first few appearances in the majors supported a narrative against him.

However, Carmen has really turned things around. Since June, Mlodzinski has pitched 21.2 innings with a 1.25 ERA. We’re really starting to see now that Carmen that we saw last season, who was one of the team’s best bullpen arms.

I think this is the version of him we will see down the stretch. His ERA pre-All Star break was 3.38; I think his post-All Star break ERA will be well below that.

Mitch Keller: Improve

We’ve seen Mitch Keller pitch some really dominant games this season. But, we’ve also seen him have some off nights. It has balanced out to a stat line that looks like this: 10-5, 3.46 ERA, 1.251 WHIP.

Two of his last five starts didn’t look all that Keller-like, but I don’t foresee that being an issue down the stretch of the season. I believe Keller is going to look lights out as he leads a rotation that hopefully we will still be watching in October.

Colin Holderman: Regress

Unfortunately for Colin Holderman, we were already starting to see the regression happen for him before the All Star break. From his season debut on April 11th until June 22nd, Holderman had pitched 26.2 innings and allowed only 2 earned runs, for an ERA of 0.68.

However, since then, he has pitched 9.0 innings and given up 5 earned runs.O Opponents have been batting .351 against him over that time.

Look, his pure dominance out of the bullpen in the earlier days of the season wasn’t sustainable, and his last few weeks are not indicative of the pitcher he is. But his ERA to this point on the year is 1.77, and if you’re asking me whether it will be higher or lower at season’s end, I’d say higher.

Dennis Santana: Regress

Dennis Santana is a hard name to work with. The man who was claimed off waivers from the New York Yankees has 11.1 innings with the Pirates this season, giving up 7 earned runs and having a WHIP of 1.676.

I want to say improve because there’s a part of me that thinks that, with more time, those numbers will mellow out a little. That, and his strikeout numbers have been good. But he just hasn’t shown me anything else to make me believe that.

This might all be moot though; if the Pirates can get Ryan Borucki back, I have to assume Santana is the man to go.

David Bednar: Improve

Through injuries and a horrible start to his season, David Bednar’s current ERA is 5.01. It’s not going to stay that way.

When he was healthy and ready to go, Bednar looked like the closer we always knew was there, and now that he has recently come back from his month-long IL stint, his numbers will continue to get better.

I don’t have a lot else to add on Bednar, he was one of the easiest decisions on the roster to make.

Josh Fleming: Improve

It’s been one crazy season for Josh Fleming. From being a very late free agent signing, to being DFA’d, and then brought back to be relied on as a lefty reliever.

But through it all, Fleming has done what he can. Since coming back from his designation to Indianapolis, Fleming has tossed 10.1 innings and given up only 1 earned run. That recent success for Fleming on the mound on Pittsburgh is why I think he will have a better second half overall.

His first half stats have an ERA of 3.99 and a WHIP of 1.500. If he can keep up what he is doing now, it won’t even be close. But even if he loses some of that, I still think he’s in line to improve.

Luis Ortiz: Regress

Before you say anything, let me explain.

For this kind of article, Luis Ortiz is a similar predicament to Paul Skenes. Ortiz has been good – so good – that I think naturally he is due for some regression down the stretch, even if it is just a little bit.

Ortiz has become incredibly reliable for the Pirates, both as a reliever and recently as a starter as well. I don’t think that his reliability will dip at all, but I think ever so slightly his numbers will.

And that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It’s more of a testament to how good Ortiz has been so far this year, having a 2.84 ERA in 66.2 innings pitched.

Quinn Preister: Improve

Though this season is a noticeable improvement from his debut year in 2023, Quinn Priester has still had some ups and downs this season.

Make no mistake, he has had some really good outings for the Pirates, which has helped get his ERA down to 4.54 and his WHIP under 1.500. However, he has yet to really establish a track record that would lend itself to believing his good outings can weigh more than his bad ones.

So, based on that, I have to guess that he regresses.

Marco Gonzales: Regress

Marco Gonzales is a very hard one to pick, because his sample size is only 4 starts. However, in those starts he has a 2.45 ERA, giving up 6 earned runs in 22.0 innings pitched.

Again, it’s a really small sample size, but going off of that, I have to say he will regress. Even in his best years in the major leagues, he never had an ERA that low. In fact, he has never had a season with a sub-3.10 ERA, and has hovered around the 4.00 mark his decade long career.

For a pitcher like Gonzales who hasn’t really played this season but has a lengthy career to his name, I have to lean on the past here.

Kyle Nicolas: Regress

This is another hard one to pick, but I decided to lean regress on Nicolas’ case. This another instance where I don’t think he will regress all that much, but a little bit.

To his massive credit though, he hasn’t given up an earned run since June 16th, pitching 9.1 scoreless innings since.

This decision was made just on the full body of work; I just haven’t seen enough from quite yet. But this was a really tough call.

Aroldis Chapman: Regress

Aroldis Chapman has been a very interesting Pirate. In his first (and maybe) only year in Pittsburgh, Chapman has recorded a 4.15 ERA and 1.615 WHIP.

He’s made some highlight worthy throws, topping 103 miles per hour on pitches, but he’s also responsible for some blown saves and has struggled with control and command at times this year.

At this point in his career, the 36-year old Chapman is what he is. His arm health has to be commended, but it’s clear that he isn’t the dominant man he used to be.

Martín Pérez: Improve

Things haven’t gone super well for Martín Pérez since signing with the Pirates in the offseason. Coming off a World Series winning season that saw him begin the year as a starter and end the year as a reliever, Pérez has been used in the rotation this year for Pittsburgh.

He has a 5.15 ERA and 1.623 WHIP in 14 starts this season for the Pirates. He hasn’t gotten the best run support from his offensive counterparts, but he also hasn’t done a great job of holding up his end of the bargain.

However, down the stretch last season, Pérez got much better on the mound for the Texas Rangers, and I’m banking on a similar turnaround happening for him in Pittsburgh, assuming he isn’t traded.

Put him in the bullpen.

Nick Gonzales: Improve

Nick Gonzales came in blazing hot after his call up, and even though he has since cooled off a little bit, he has still been one of the team’s best bats all year. Gonzales is slashing .265/.305/.409 with 35 RBI in 57 games.

Using that season-long slash line, I think Gonzales will have at least a better batting average when the season is done. There’s a really good bat in there and it’s been exciting to watch him finally put all the pieces together.

Jared Triolo: Improve

Though I don’t think Jared Triolo’s bat will improve a ton this season, I do think he is better than his .205 batting average suggests this season.

Triolo has been awful at the plate this season, there’s no doubt about that. However this is a player that hit .298 this season in 54 games for the Pirates. I can’t foresee him continuing to be this bad at the plate, and even if it’s a marginal improvement, I do think he will have one.

Jack Suwinski: Improve

Jack Suwinski is in a similar position for me. Like Jared Triolo, I just really can’t see Suwinski continuing to be this bad with the bat. He is currently slashing .174/.259/.319.

The 9 home runs he has this year have served as a mirage; each time, he makes us think that maybe, just maybe, this can be the hit that serves as the turning point. And every time, is has yet to actually happen.

But I am going to choose to be delusional, and believe that he will improve upon that abysmal batting average. Those home runs have to mean something…right?

Andrew McCutchen: Regress

It pains me so much to say this, but we’re already seeing the signs of a serious regression for Andrew McCutchen. He is currently batting .226, the lowest in any season of his illustrious major league career. He hasn’t had an average higher than .246 at any point this season.

At 37 years old, we’ve also seen him being rested more and more, leaving his DH spot vacated while he is given additional off days.

It just kind of feels like this year might be the end for McCutchen, and that breaks my heart.

Bryan Reynolds: Improve

It’s hard to improve upon a .287/.347/.487 slash line, but I think Bryan Reynolds will do just that. His career high .912 OPS (set in 2021) could be in danger as Reynolds continues to play down the stretch for the Pirates.

There’s just no stopping this guy. Now an All Star twice in his big league career, Reynolds is going to be a major factor if the Pirates are still playing meaningful ball come September.

Oneil Cruz: Improve

It’s hard to believe that Oneil Cruz is only 25 years old, and has less than 200 major league games to his name so far. He is an immensely talented and will only continue to get better.

So while I don’t think his .246 average 14 home runs, and .738 OPS aren’t bad numbers, I think he will have a much better looking stat line when this season is all wrapped up.

Joey Bart: Regress

Joey Bart is the best (healthy) catcher the Pirates have right now. It’s both a testament to how good of a season he is having, but also how sad the state of Pirates catching currently is.

Bart is slashing .236/.330/.472 in 33 games for Pittsburgh. Those numbers are all career highs for Bart in any season where he has regularly played, which leads me to believe that he will drop back down to his usual levels as the season progresses.

Make no mistake, Bart is still the best option to play behind the plate right now, but I do think he will regress.

Yasmani Grandal: Regress

Yeah…things aren’t going well for Yasmani Grandal in Pittsburgh. His batting stats are horrible and his catching work is, at best, below average.

I try to go easier on catchers because they have a lot more responsibilities over the course of a game than other players, but when your slash line is .178/.207/.295, it’s really hard to defend.

Unfortunately, it’s also equally as hard to see those numbers – or his catching defense, getting at all better.

Michael A. Taylor: Regress

Despite his Gold Glove reputation as an outfielder, it has not proven to be anywhere near enough to make up for his abysmal offense. Taylor has just recently crossed the .200 threshold, something he has rarely been able to stay above this season.

Currently, he is slashing .203/.258/.279 with 2 home runs and 13 RBI in 73 games. He’s in a similar position overall to Jack Suwinski, but unlike Suwinski, Taylor hasn’t shown the power this season to make me believe that things have even the potential to get better.

Rowdy Tellez: Improve

The comeback story that Rowdy Tellez has become is one of the best stories in Pittsburgh sports over the last few years.

From being booed relentlessly at PNC Park to having the crowd chant his name in the span of roughly a month, Rowdy has surpassed the talk of him needing to be DFA’d and now has people talking about a potential extension for him.

Tellez now has a .243 batting average on the year, with 8 homers.

I can only hope that he will continue this wild ride with a strong finish down the stretch, and his numbers recently make me feel confident enough to think they’ll be even better at season’s end.

Connor Joe: Improve

Connor Joe has had a streaky season for the Pirates, being red hot for weeks and ice cold for others. It’s balanced out to a .242 average and a .720 OPS.

With the resurgence of Tellez and the arrival of Joshua Palacios, Joe has sort of been fazed out of an everyday roster spot. Despite that, I think the second half of the season will see an improved Joe at the plate. Just a gut feeling on this.

Ke’Bryan Hayes: Improve

It’s been a mostly disappointing season for Ke’Bryan Hayes. After winning a Gold Glove last season, his defense hasn’t been nearly as superb, and his batting performance has also slumped.

The third baseman is slashing .244/.297/.311, with 3 home runs and 21 RBI.

However, Hayes has been around long enough that I don’t think this low of an average will last all season. I think the second half will serve as a good turning point for him.

Bailey Falter: Regress

Bailey Falter might be just be the biggest surprise of the season for the Pirates. A lefty who was loathed by this fan base at the start of the season has enjoyed watching him put together a 4.08 ERA, 1.196 WHIP season.

However, we’ve already seen the start of a Falter regression before he wound up on the IL. H’e’s been charged with 3+ earned runs in half of his six starts dating back to June 6th.

Unfortunately, Falter has slowly been becoming more and more of the pitcher that we expected to see this year, and I fear that this slide will continue once he returns to the rotation.

Jared Jones: Improve

I’m very high on Jared Jones. Very.

He has a 3.56 ERA with a 1.110 WHIP in 16 starts for the Pirates. He landed on the IL with a lat injury, but he is expected to come back in the second half. When he does, I think he will be even better on the mound. If he finds a way to maintain those WHIP numbers, his ERA will go down.

(Featured photo by Gene J. Puskar/AP)