Through injuries, subpar play, questionable coaching decisions, unreliable goaltending, and so many other things you could say, the Penguins entered their Thanksgiving Eve matchup with the Vancouver Canucks with only seven wins on the year.

They’ve looked disastrous in almost every game they’ve played. They’ve showed no fight, no pushback, and no real way to impose their will on the opponent (if they even have any will to impose).

The season has been spiraling out of control for quite some time now. Weeks of this type of play can kill a season, and with the Penguins currently sitting last place in the Metropolitan Division, time is quickly running out on any hope to save the season.

Let me be clear, I do not believe it was Pittsburgh’s whole-hearted intention to win a Stanley Cup this year. It couldn’t have been given the offseason that Kyle Dubas put together, one that prioritized picking up assets and draft capital to take fliers on guys.

However, with Sidney Crosby still captaining this team, with the core still together, and with the organization still declining to say the word “rebuild” in any form, you have to leave the door open for this team aiming for a playoff spot, something Sid and the core would desperately love.

And if that is going to happen, the Penguins needed a “get right” game. A game where the offense explodes, where the defense shines, and where players that have been questions marks all year really show you something.

A 5-4 win over Vancouver wasn’t exactly all that, but with the current state of this Penguins team, it was as close to a “get right” game as possible.

From an offensive standpoint, this game was perfect. The Penguins got scoring from all facets of their roster. Blake Lizotte, in his first game back from concussion, scored the team’s first goal, being in the right place at the right time to pot it five-hole.

Rickard Rakell, Kevin Hayes, and Bryan Rust would also score to cap off a four-goal first period for the Penguins, who took a 4-1 lead into the first intermission. It was one of, if not the best period this team has played all year.

In the second, though the scoring cooled off, the Penguins remained vigilant on the attack. Through the middle frame, they traded goals to take a 5-2 lead into the third. It was another solid period of hockey.

The third…well, that’s a bit of a different story. The Penguins are perhaps the only team in the NHL who could make a team that uneasy despite having a three-goal lead. And less than a minute in, the Penguins proved exactly why as Quinn Hughes fired a snap shot into the net to make it 5-3.

Even though the Penguins kept the Canucks off the board for the next little while, the tides had turned and the ice was a lot more even than it had been for the first 40 minutes.

After Vancouver pulled the goalie, the Canucks brought it to a one-goal game, but the Penguins were able to shore up their defense long enough to preserve the game.

Bryan Rust led the way with three points on the night, and Sidney Crosby got his point-per-game season mission back on track with a pair of beautiful assists. Five other forwards chipped in with a point as the team put together their highest goal total since October 16th against the Buffalo Sabres.

While it was a “get right” game for the offense, who featured scorers from three of their four forward lines tonight, it was more of a “we didn’t blow it!” kind of night from the defense and goaltender.

Their top level defensemen continued to struggle. Kris Letang was average, Matt Grzelcyk struggled, and Marcus Pettersson posted a -2, worst among the team’s defensemen.

I thought both Ryan Shea and Jack St. Ivany played admirably last night, and while Erik Karlsson was still a defensive nightmare who bobbled the puck near the blue line, he was a force on offense recording a trio of assists. If Karlsson can’t play defense, he needs to contribute on the scoresheet. Give him credit, he did that tonight.

In net, Tristan Jarry was greeted with a sarcastic amount of fanfare when he made his first save. On the night, he saved 25 of 29 for a measly .862 save percentage, which is very in line with how his season has gone (4.41 GAA and .869 Sv%). I didn’t think all of the goals were his fault, but it was another subpar night for him. He needs to be better still.

Despite that, he earned the win (just his second of the year) which will no doubt help with his confidence just a little bit. Even while missing key guys like JT Miller, that Canucks team that they just beat is quite good. And I think that is the message for the whole team after this game, right ahead of the playoff benchmark for the NHL.

The Penguins currently sit four points out of the playoffs. That itself is not a daunting gap in the standings, but when you factor in the math, that’s where things get very tricky.

American Thanksgiving is widely seen as the benchmark in the NHL for whether a team has a real shot at the playoffs, and with good reason. In the salary cap era – excluding the two Covid seasons where this metric can’t apply – 197 of the 256 teams to hold a playoff spot on Thanksgiving went on to make the postseason. That’s a 77% success rate. 

Last year, 13 of 16 playoff teams on Thanksgiving held onto those spots, including all but one in the Eastern Conference. 

So if a team don’t have a spot on the fourth Thursday in November – or if they aren’t within a point or two – it’s very likely probably over.

It’s not impossible, by any means. Outliers to this rule do exist, and Pittsburgh’s four point gap is assuredly smaller than the all-time deficit of ten, set by Chicago in 1959 and matched by Toronto in 1970.

Teams that are currently riding high can always fall, too. The 2018-19 St. Louis Blues, who were dead last in the NHL on January 3 of that season, are hailed as the poster child for comeback teams. Few people outside St. Louis remember that the season before, they had a ten-point cushion and fell all the way out of the playoff by year’s end.

So it’s certainly not impossible, but the odds are definitely against the Penguins for the rest of the way.

If, and that is such a huge if, the Penguins can mount some sort of heroic comeback on the year, they will need to build on last night’s win against Vancouver. There is no more time to mess around. It is now or it’s never for this iteration of the Pens.