A few days ago, I started doing an over/under on the ZiPS projected stats for Pirates batters.

In that list I covered seven names: Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz, Jack Suwinski, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Yorke, and Billy Cook.

Today, I’ll be doing the second half of the batters, deciding whether I think each player who has a solid (if not guaranteed) chance to make the Pirates’ major league roster will exceed or fail to reach the projections that ZiPS has on them.

Here’s Part Two:

Nick Gonzales

Call me a Nick Gonzales stan. Call me a Nick Gonzales believer. Call me a Nick Gonzales truther, if you will, as long as it helps you understand how much faith I have in this man.

Last year, Gonzales experienced his breakout season in the major leagues, slashing .270/.311/.398 with seven home runs and 49 RBI in 94 games. It was exciting to see about the former first round pick by the club, and if this team is going to have offensive success this year, he will have to be one of the catalysts for it.

I’ve written more extensively on Gonzales and the impact he could have on the Pirates in 2025 for The Pitt News, and I believe he will far and away exceed the projections ZiPS has for him.

They give Gonzales a .264 average, .746 OPS, 11 home runs, and 66 RBI.

OVER on everything.

Adam Frazier

Frazier is probably the most unpopular free agent the team signed this winter. Not because he wasn’t loved back when he played for the Pirates from 2016 to 2021, but because the signing made little sense at the time and makes even less sense now.

The utility man has struggled to find a steady home in recent years, playing for four teams in as many years after Pittsburgh traded him to San Diego in the summer of 2021.

Last season was a miserable year offensively for Frazier, who hit just .202 in Kansas City and had an OPS of .576. He was nearly a regular in the Royals’ lineup but only notched four home runs and 22 RBI. At 33, a comeback certainly isn’t out of the question, but it’s harder to bet on.

Not to mention, the Pirates already have a superutility guy in Jared Triolo. I loved Frazier in his first go-around here, but the signing just doesn’t make sense.

ZiPS, in my opinion, was very generous with their projections on him. They gave him a .243 average and .650 OPS along with five home runs and 35 RBI. That projected average is higher than anything he’s notched since the 2021 season, for the record.

As much as it pains me to, I have to take the UNDER on everything. I don’t think he’ll play a ton, making those latter two numbers hard to reach. And when he is in the lineup, I just don’t think he’ll bat all that well. Not at those numbers, at least.

Jared Triolo

Speaking of Triolo, he’s up next.

Triolo had his fair share of ups and downs last season. Far from the surprisingly strong batter he was in 2023, Triolo slumped for a .216/.296/.315 slash line in 2024, with much of his value coming in the form of defense, where he won a Gold Glove in the utility role and filled in for an injured Ke’Bryan Hayes, who missed much of the season.

I think that mantra will hold true for Triolo again this season. He’s a great defender and he truly can play anywhere in the field, which is why I would hate to see his talents put to little use at first base. It will be very interesting to see if Triolo can find some more consistent hitting this season with the Pirates.

He’s projected to hit .246 with a .676 OPS, seven home runs and 46 RBI. For the first time on the second half of this list, I have split results. I’ll take UNDER on the batting average and OPS, but OVER on both the home runs and RBI.

I get the feeling Triolo will hit somwhere around .225, maybe .230. So he’ll get relatively close, but I can’t say over after what I saw last season. However, I did see him notch 10 homers and exactly 46 RBIs last season, so I do feel confident that he’ll showcase some power every now and then.

Tommy Pham

If Pham doesn’t punch somebody this season I will be very, very disappointed.

But in all seriousness, Pham is a sleeper candidate for most interesting free agent signing, and I’ll tell you why. Yes, he had a bit of a down year last year, ad bounced around MLB, playing for three different teams. The 23-game run with St. Louis was bad, but his season stats overall weren’t nearly as harsh as the Cardinals numbers were.

Pham slashed .248/.305/.368 between the Chicago White Sox, St. Louis, and Kansas City. In 2023, split between the New York Mets and Arizona, Pham totaled .256/.328/.446, an OPS close to .800. He’s hit 25 home runs and 107 RBI over the last two years combined.

If the Pirates can get the 2023 version of Pham, that signing won’t be a bad one at all. ZiPS gives Pham a projected .248 average, .698 OPS, 10 home runs and 45 RBI. Maybe I’m an optimist on him, but I think he will exceed all of those figures. I’ll take the risky OVER on all for Pham.

Ke’Bryan Hayes

What a fall from grace Hayes had. A year after winning that elusive Gold Glove for his work at third base, and in a season where he .271 and was one of the Pirates’ best bats, Hayes is now at a pivotal moment in his career.

Last year was marred by a back injury, limiting him to only 96 games and none after August 17th, where he slumped down to a .233/.283/.290 slash line. Many Pirates fans wanted the team to find a way to dump him off somewhere and bail out of his contract, but Hayes is still here.

I was never on the anti-Hayes bandwagon, but I am admittedly skeptical that he can return to old form. He’s looked solid in spring training so far, but I can hardly get my hopes all the way up for a few exhibition games in February.

ZiPS, after that harsh last year, gives Hayes a .251 average, .670 OPS, eight home runs, and 43 RBI. Hayes is a plater I really struggled with, because these projections feel really accurate for him.

But for my decision, I took a look at his total body of work. In any full season besides 2024 Hayes has averaged a .257 at the plate and an OPS of .704. I don’t think he’ll hit many homers, but based on that I have to go OVER on batting average, OPS, and RBI, and UNDER on home runs.

Endy Rodriguez

The catcher’s position is rather in flux for these 2025 Bucs. Besides Joey Bart, who takes the backup or 1B role behind the plate.

Rodriguez is one of those candidates, and he’s looking to reclaim an MLB job after missing all of last season due to an injury sustained in winter ball. In 2023, Rodriguez slashed .220/.284/.328 in 57 games for the Pirates. He was a work in progress but I thought he made great strides in those games and I really liked his work with the catcher’s mitt.

If he makes the team, and that is a big if, ZiPS projects him as a .244 hitter with a .694 OPS, 10 home runs and 53 RBI. I don’t know, I just can’t see Rodriguez hitting that well. I’m more than ok if he starts the season as the team’s backup catcher, but I just can’t see him reaching any of those totals.

UNDER on all.

Andrew McCutchen

He’s back for at least one more year. The face of the Pirates will likely take on the full-time designated hitter role for Pittsburgh in 2025, as he did in both 2023 and 2024.

McCutchen hit .232/.328/.411 last season in 120 games for Pittsburgh. As he continues to climb up in age, now 38 years old, there’s some concerns about the longevity of his batting abilities, which was evident in the ZiPS projections for him.

They gave him a .225 average, .696 OPS, 13 home runs, and 44 RBI. Of note, they gave him a 12% walk rate. I haven’t mentioned that metric for any other player, but ZiPS projects him to lead the team in walk percentage. For what it’s worth, he led the Pirates with 58 walks last year despite being sixth in games played.

I understand why his projections would be in the low end, but I think ZiPS went far too low with these projections. There is still a plenty capable bat in him still, so I am gladly taking the OVER in all categories.

McCutchen had a .739 OPS last season. He hit 20 home runs and 50 RBIs last season. I can’t see him slipping that far down.

Henry Davis

After two off-and-on, hard years trying to break into the major leagues, the first overall pick from 2021 is in a pivotal year for him.

Davis has slashed .191/.283/.307 over 99 total big league games, but for as underwhelming as that stat line is, it is heavily supported by a half-decent 2023. Last season was a complete nightmare for Davis, who slashed .144/.242/.212 in 37 games.

He was shuttled up and down between Pittsburgh and Triple-A, but after May 1st Davis only had two small stints at the major league level. Davis’ abilities have been proven at the Triple-A level (he hit .307 with a .956 OPS with Indianapolis), but he has just never found a way to make it all click in a Pirates uniform.

There’s no guarantee that Davis earns a major league job out of camp, but given his strong end to the minor league season and his draft position, he probably has the highest odds out of him, Rodriguez, and Jason Delay.

If that is true and Davis makes the club, ZiPS gives him a .233 average, .725 OPS, 13 home runs and 53 RBI.

I don’t know, Davis is so unpredictable. The tools are all there, the success just isn’t. I can definitely see Davis hitting higher than .233, so I’ll take the OVER on that one, but nothing I’ve seen makes me confident enough on any of the others, so I have to go UNDER on the rest. I hope he proves me wrong.

Joshua Palacios

Ok I’ll be honest, Palacios’ ZiPS numbers are the wackiest in this bunch.

Palacios is a real 50/50 player to make the Pirates’ club. If he really excels in spring training, perhaps he can snag a bench role in the big leagues to open the year. As long as he isn’t penciled in as an Opening Day starter, I’m fine if he is a bench player for the Bucs.

But, ZiPS portrays Palacios as a .263 hitter who hits nine home runs, 43 RBI, and racks up a .740 OPS.

I don’t know where that came from. Palacios is a career .230/.286/.364 (.650 OPS) over 156 games and parts of four years. I love Palacios as an energy guy, and there is undeniably a bit of a clutch gene somewhere inside him, but there is no way he exceeds those lofty expectations. I have to take the UNDER on all of them.

If he was a regular, I would maybe take the over on home runs, because he hit 10 of them in 2023, but that was in 91 games. I don’t think he plays near that in 2025 unless something drastic happens.

Joey Bart

Bart experienced the MLB breakout that the San Francisco Giants always hoped he would. The only problem is that he did that in Pittsburgh.

Bart, who the Pirates acquired in the opening weeks of last season, put up career highs across the board when he slashed .265/.337/.462 while taking over the catching duties in Pittsburgh.

Naturally, ZiPS has Bart regressing somewhat, giving him a .243 average and .710 OPS, with 10 home runs and 38 RBI. Perhaps its recency bias, but I think Bart is going to build on his success from last season as the team’s starting catcher.

I’m confident in him and his abilities. I’d hammer the OVER on all of them, assuming he remains the starting catcher.