Well, I looked at the projections for the batters, so I might as well do it for the pitchers.

Last week, I looked at the ZiPS projections for Pirates batters and made my best prediction on whether they’d be over or under on some key statistics, like batting average and OPS. You can find the first half and second half of that list here on Fifth Avenue Sports.

Today, I’m going to do the same style with the Pirates’ projected starting pitchers this year. For each of the five I’ll give you what ZiPS has for them, and whether I think they’ll perform better or worse than their projections.

With Johan Oviedo set to open the year on the 60-Day Injured List, Pittsburgh’s opening day rotation is pretty set. Led by reigning NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes, the Pirates will boast a powerful rotation of him, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Andrew Heaney, and Bailey Falter.

Let’s get into the numbers.

Paul Skenes

It’s almost hard to remember that Skenes didn’t even start the season in the big leagues. The Pirates slow played Skenes, starting him in Triple-A for the first month of the season, but when he arrived in the show on May 11th, Skenes put together a phenomenal rookie season.

The first overall pick put up a 1.96 ERA over 23 starts and 133 innings of work. The Cy Young finalist went 11-3 over that time, though some poor collapses by the team around him hindered that record from being even better, and he finished the year with a 0.947 WHIP, 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and a 5.31 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

For his sophomore season, ZiPS is giving Skenes a 3.25 ERA, an 8-6 record (.571 winning percentage), and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

While I understand that there would be some expected regression after such a dominant rookie season, where no one really knew how to approach Skenes, I think ZiPS is being a little too hard on said regression.

I find it hard to believe that Skenes will post another sub-2.00 ERA this year. That’s not at all a slight to how talented Skenes is, it’s more so a statement on just how difficult that is to achieve in the major leagues.

But I certainly don’t believe that Skenes will have an ERA north of 3.00, and I do think his incredible arm and arsenal can certainly strike out higher than 10.5 every nine innings.

On his record, the only way Skenes has a winning percentage as low as .571 in 2025 is if his bullpen or batters routinely fail him, which unfortunately is possible.

But Skenes is just so good, I have no choice but to predict he’ll do BETTER on all of those.

Mitch Keller

Last season was a typical year for Keller: an amazing first half, a subpar second half.

Keller pitched to a stellar 3.30 ERA over the first four months of the season, but from August until season’s end, Keller posted a miserable 6.70 ERA. His collapses down the stretch is something he’ll have to correct as the Pirates hope to still be in the playoff mix come August and September.

His 2024 season ended with a 11-12 record, 4.25 ERA, 1.303 WHIP, 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings, and a 3.32 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

With Skenes now firmly entrenched as the ace in the rotation, and Jones possibly occupying the runner-up role to that, some of the pressure will be eased off Keller, which hopefully can help him perform a little better in the final months of the season.

ZiPS gave Keller a 4.02 ERA, a 10-10 record (.500 winning percentage), and 8.14 strikeouts per nine innings.

Excluding the 2020 season, where Keller only tossed 21.2 innings, Keller has only posted an ERA under 4.02 once in his career. Maybe I’m an optimist, but I think Keller will put up an ERA better than that this season.

I also think he’ll do better than that 8.14 figure, something he has bested four out of his five full big league seasons. And if he does both those things, he should have a winning record for the Bucs, so I am predicting he’ll do BETTER on all three.

Jared Jones

Jones had the unfortunate luck of his rookie seasom being the same as Skenes’ rookie year, meaning he was overshadowed for much of the season.

But Jones had plenty of highlights in his rookie year. His arm is perhaps a little less polished than Skenes, but there is a ton of potential in him and his arsenal to improve.

Last season, Jones had a 4.14 ERA in 22 starts, with a 1.192 WHIP, 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings, a 3.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a 6-8 record. He missed some time during the season with a lat issue and struggled after he returned in late August (putting up a 5.87 ERA in his final six starts), but with a new season ahead of him I’m excited to see how he responds.

ZiPS gave Jones a 3.89 ERA, 7-8 record (.466 wining percentage) and 9.09 strikeouts per nine innings. I think that 3.89 is a really good estimate for what Jones will do in 2025, but since I have to pick above or below, I’ll bet on Jared that he’ll get under that.

I think he’ll get ahead of that 9.09 strikeouts per nine estimate too, and much like Keller, if he does those two things, he should have a winning record in 2025. So once again, I’m going BETTER.

Andrew Heaney

The only addition to the starting pitching staff the Pirates made via free agency, Heaney is coming off a year in Texas that saw him put up a 4.28 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings, and a 3.88 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

He was incredibly unlucky last year in the win column, going 5-14 for a team-worst .263 winning percentage among qualified hurlers.

One of his best outings, however, came against the Pirates last August, when he pitched five scoreless innings and struck out eight in an eventual 1-0 win for the Rangers.

Now in Pittsburgh, Heaney becomes the latest free agent lefty signing that the Pirates have made, and he joins Falter as the lefties in this Pirates rotation. The organization has had success with those moves before, but only time will tell if Heaney can find success here as well.

ZiPS projects Heaney to have 4.75 ERA with an 8.81 strikeout per nine rate and a 7-8 record.

Honestly, I think Heaney only slightly outperforms that ERA mark. My gut feeling tells me he’ll be around the 4.50, 4.60 mark. So, he’ll get really, really close to that figure, but I think he’ll come in just under that.

Career wise, Heaney has only struck out under 8.81 per nine innings twice in his 11-year major league career, and he has not posted a figure under that since the 2015 season. Even with those numbers on a downward trend since 2022, I think he’ll come in just above that. I’ll take the BETTER on those two.

However, I don’t think he’ll have a better record than 7-8. Part of it is being a back of the line rotation guy, but this is a Pirates lineup that does not boast a ton of offense, so if you’re someone who has an ERA that is north of four, I can’t feel confident betting that you’ll have a comfortable winning record. WORSE on that one.

Bailey Falter

Falter had a horrific debut to the season last year, when he allowed five runs in the first inning of his first start in Miami.

But from that game on, Falter was pretty solid given his role. Excluding his debut, Falter put up a 4.16 ERA (he was a 4.43 ERA including that Marlins game), and finished the year with a 1.286 ERA, 2.16 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He went 8-9.

Falter is a bit of a divisive player, probably more than your average fifth starter of a big league team. Some don’t believe in his abilities, which contradicts the preachings of the Falter Fellas. In my opinion, he’s fine for what he is. As long as he isn’t counted to do too much, he’s fine as a fifth guy.

ZiPS gives Falter a 4.37 ERA, with a 6-8 record and 6.44 strikeouts per nine innings.

I don’t think Falter will outperform any of those numbers, I’m thinking WORSE on all of them. It doesn’t mean that Falter isn’t still a fine option as a fifth starter, but I don’t think Falter beats these numbers.

Falter isn’t much of a strikeout guy, so it’s hard for me to bet on a higher rate for him. And much like Heaney, being a starter with an ERA north of four has me wary about banking on a better record as well. But that mark is a less of a statement about him and more on the current Pirate offense, or lack thereof.