The Pittsburgh Penguins have been one of the most surprising stories in the NHL over the first two months.

The Penguins were projected to be one of the worst in the NHL this season, with an uncertain and unproven goaltending situation, and a rickety blue line in front of it. However, the team’s goaltending has rebounded incredibly well from a season ago, and the defense is doing just enough to keep the team afloat.

Their forward group, meanwhile, has performed admirably considering how many injuries have struck the team this year.

Though they have started to regress from their October performance, which saw them end the season’s opening month at first place in the NHL, the Penguins are still far-and-away exceeding expectations.

After winning 4-2 last night over the Buffalo Sabres, the Penguins now stand at 11-6-5 (27 points). They hold the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, just one point behind a similarly surprising team in the New York Islanders.

However, Pittsburgh’s playoff spot is being held by the thinnest of margins. With all 11 of Pittsburgh’s wins coming in regulation, the Penguins hold the tiebreaker over both the Montreal Canadiens and Philadelphia Flyers, who both also have 27 points, but fewer regulations wins.

So, if the playoffs started today, the Penguins would have just squeaked in. They would be playing New Jersey, the Metropolitan Division and conference leader. Obviously, there’s still a long way to go, but holding a postseason spot on this very thankful day historically means good things for teams.

American Thanksgiving is widely seen as the benchmark for whether a team in the NHL can make the playoffs. In the salary cap era (excluding the two Covid seasons, where things obviously got wonky), teams who hold a playoff spot on American Thanksgiving make the Stanley Cup Playoffs just under 80% of the time.

Last season, 12-of-16 teams who held playoff spots on American Thanksgiving ended up making the playoffs. The year before, 13-of-16 teams who had a spot on the holiday got in.

In case you were curious, the Penguins were four points out of a wild card spot on this holiday last year. As you probably remember, they did not make the playoffs.

Wild card holders, like the Penguins are this season, are often the most vulnerable for stats like these. One loss can see their spot slip away, and this season, that’s especially true.

Things are still so bunched up in the Eastern Conference. Just four points separates first place in the conference with second to last. Placement is changing by the day, and all it takes is a team getting really hot or really cold to change the course of their season.

But I don’t think anyone saw the Penguins having a chance at being in a playoff spot almost two months into the season. They were never seen as contenders over the summer or coming out of training camp. For this team to be where they are is an incredible testament to the work of this roster, and the success of new head coach Dan Muse and his coaching staff.

Now, it’s up to Muse’s Penguins to keep this momentum going. A chance to build off of Wednesday night comes quick, with the Penguins traveling to Columbus tomorrow for a divisional tilt.

Happy Thanksgiving, y’all.