Justin Lawrence has a very interesting career arc so far.

Making his major league debut in 2021, the righty spent his first four years as a big leaguer in Colorado. Pitching roughly half his time in such a hitter-friendly ballpark, it’s no surprise that his cumulative ERA was a 5.43 over his first 194 innings on the mound.

The 2023 season was undoubtedly his best, where he tossed a career-high 75 innings to a 3.72 ERA, 1.347 WHIP, and 2.17 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That’s a decent season by a major league arm and a stellar campaign by Coors Field standards.

It was a glimpse into what the Panamanian could do, but after a rough 2024, the Rockies designated him for assignment. Pittsburgh, who has developed a reputation for rehabbing pitchers, took him on, hoping they could perhaps do for Lawrence what they had done for Dennis Santana.

When we saw Lawrence last year, it worked. From a numbers perspective, he was Pittsburgh’s most dominant reliever. Through 17.2 innings last season, he excelled with a 0.51 ERA, 0.962 WHIP, and 2.88 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The only run he allowed came in his season debut, where he surrendered a pair of hits and a run while pitching the seventh against the Miami Marlins. From then on, he was perfect.

The only problem was his health.

Lawrence landed on the injured list towards the end of April, and wound up on an extended stay there until September. He pitched 6.1 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts and two walks in an early tryout for the next season.

This year, however, is a bit of a different story. In a bullpen with a lot of moving pieces, the 31-year-old secured a spot to hopefully pick up where he left off in 2025. Instead, he has struggled immensely so far.

Through 6.1 innings of work so far this season, Lawrence is sporting a 9.95 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, and 3.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

He started the season with two earned runs against during the chaotic Opening Day game against the Mets in New York. He followed it up with three scoreless appearances worth eight outs, but now has a concerning three-game trend of allowing runs.

On Monday, Lawrence pitched the eighth in the opening game of the series against San Diego. Even though he was able to secure two strikeouts, the Padres were able to score on him. His sinker was hit twice, once for a single by Freddy Fermin and once by Ramón Laureano for an RBI double.

Two days later, Lawrence took over for Mitch Keller in the rubber match vs San Diego, and really struggled. The start to that inning wasn’t his fault; a throwing error by Nick Gonzales allowed the first batter of the inning to reach. But Lawrence wasn’t able to recover from that.

Miguel Andujar doubled on a sweeper by Lawrence to put two runners in scoring position, and Nick Castellanos also smacked that sweeper for a two-run double.

Two batters later, Jake Cronenworth tallied his first home run of the season off the four-seamer to hang a third and fourth run on Lawrence. The inning ended with back-to-back swinging strikeouts, but the game had flipped completely in favor of the Padres.

If there was a silver lining to Lawrence’s loss, José Urquidy didn’t have a much better outing (although only one of his four runs were earned).

Yesterday in Chicago, Lawrence took to the mound once more as the Pirates looked to claim the series against the Cubs. While Pittsburgh ultimately held on, Lawrence still looked rocky.

One thing that Lawrence has remained during this rough patch is his command. He walked just two batters during his first six games and kept his pitches very controlled. His most recent outing didn’t live up to that reputation; Lawrence issued a six-pitch walk to start the seventh, before allowing a single off his sinker in the middle of the zone to put two on.

He then suffered a wild pitch to move both runners into scoring position. On a sinker in the lower zone, Lawrence was able to force Dansby Swanson into a groundout, but that still added a run for the Cubs and cut the lead to 3-2. Lawrence was also able to succeed in getting Nico Hoerner to ground out, but couldn’t finish the inning as manager Don Kelly walked out to give him the hook.

It was the third subpar outing from Lawrence this season and continues to balloon an already inflated ERA, and these are the kinds of innings that make it a little hard to feel comfortable when he takes the mound.

But, the question really is this: how much should we worry about him?

It feels too early to simply move off of Lawrence, especially since that would require designating him for assignment. Even if his numbers aren’t enticing right now, he has the tools to make you think twice about letting someone else pick him up.

But in the short term, it might be wise for Kelly and the Pirates to deploy him in less dangerous situations. Lawrence entered Wednesday in a tie game, and the Pirates held a narrow two-run lead at Wrigley Field when he walked out of the bullpen.

In an ideal scenario, Lawrence gets a few reps in lower-pressure games to rebound from a harsh start to the year. If the Pirates find themselves in a lost cause game or a blowout win, get him in for some work and see if he can figure this thing out on his own.