Last night was a pivotal game for Paul Skenes.

The ace of the pitching staff in Pittsburgh has come under scrutiny over the last few months as some of his numbers have slipped. Debate as to whether to worry about Skenes is only growing within the team’s fan base.

By major league standards, Skenes had done pretty well for himself to open the year. Through 17 starts and 93 innings, the righty had recorded a 3.10 ERA, 0.968 WHIP, and 5.70 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Among all qualified pitchers in baseball yesterday morning, Skenes was still top-20 in ERA, top-five in WHIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio, and the second-best in strikeouts per nine.

And to his credit, some of his underlying numbers are still stellar. His 30.6% strikeout rate was actually 1.1% higher than it was last season, his 5.4% walk rate was three points lower than last year, and his hard hit rate had fallen from 40.3% last year to 36.9%.

But by the Skenes standard, the one that earned him NL Rookie of the Year in 2024, a Cy Young in 2025, and the honor of starting the All Game in each of those years, the base numbers are rather subpar.

Coming into yesterday, Skenes’ 3.10 ERA was over 50% higher than the 1.96 he sported over his first two years. His WHIP was 20 points higher than that run in 2024 and 2025, and the nine home runs allowed this year (before the Phillies tacked on more) was well on pace for a career high.

And when it comes to the eye test, something just looks off about Skenes. Aside from the velocity trending down and the control looking wild at certain times this season, working on the mound appears harder for Skenes than it ever has at the major league level. A job Skenes routinely did coolly and calmly now looks like real labor.

Some of this trend is just bad luck. Baseball is a weird sport, sometimes things just happen.

Some of it is a poor defense behind him. The Pirates sacrificed a lot of defensive capabilities. It was a much needed transition, but it’s a reminder that the defensive side of the game is still very important, and some of these players aren’t cutting it in that department.

And some of it has to do with Skenes himself. For as good as his numbers still are for any regular major league starter, it’s undeniable that, so far this season, he has taken a step back.

All of that was on display Wednesday night against the Phillies in Philadelphia, starting in the second inning.

Philadelphia already had runners on the corners, and no one out when Phillies catcher JT Realmuto came to the plate. That’s already an unusual scenario for Skenes to be in, but in prior years, he saved some of his best work for when he had his back against the wall like that.

Make no mistake, Realmuto has carved out an incredible career for himself. He’s a three-time All Star, three-time Silver Slugger, and has over 700 RBI to his name. But this season, he was batting just .204 with a .610 OPS. Skenes would usually dismiss a stat line like that very quickly.

Instead, Realmuto works a ten-pitch at-bat off him. After a called strike to start the matchup, Skenes missed badly three straight times to put him behind in the count and forcing him to work exclusively around the edges until that tenth pitch. Only after throwing the rare changeup to a right-handed batter in Realmuto did he get the Phillie to chase for a K well below the zone.

And even though he got the strikeout, that victory felt hollow. It cost Skenes ten pitches, and put him through a lengthy at-bat where he looked less than crisp.

The next batter, Gabriel Rincones Jr., is issued a walk. Two highly uncompetitive pitches combined with two strikes and two very close balls loaded the bases with just one out.

But again, Skenes was just as good with his back against the wall. And here’s where the bad luck and/or poor defense aspect comes in. To Skenes’ credit, he induces a ground ball just two pitches into Justin Crawford’s at-bat, but third baseman Nick Gonzales beams the throw off Alec Bohm’s back, sending the ball towards the dugout and scoring Bohm and Bryson Stott, as well as keeping two runners in scoring position.

Both Gonzales and catcher Henry Davis are at fault there. Gonzales makes a bad throw, there’s no question. But Davis doesn’t give his third baseman any target to put that ball. He’s standing still on home plate, and when Gonzales has to throw, all he can see is Bohm’s back. He takes the chance, and it doesn’t work. You can’t blame Skenes for that.

What you might be able to blame Skenes for is what happened next. Trea Turner brought the top of the order, and two pitches in he gets taken deep on a sweeper that landed in the left field seats.

That three-run shot put the Pirates well out of reach, and even though Pittsburgh pulled off the comeback on Monday, it’s not an ideal place to be playing from.

The Pirates were able to nab two runs in the top of the third, but a second homer off Skenes put the momentum right back in the home team’s hands. It was just the sixth time Skenes has surrendered multiple home runs in his career, but the third time he’s done that this season.

He exited the game after four innings with one of the uglier stat lines of his career: six hits, eight runs (seven earned), two walks, five strikeouts, and two home runs against. His season ERA is now 3.62.

And again, for an ordinary pitcher that would be great. But Skenes is no ordinary pitcher. And so when he looks like one, it’s understandable to see a growing number of fans concerned.

Maybe the fatigue is getting to him. Unlike in 2024 and 2025, Skenes represented the United States at this spring’s World Baseball Classic, where he pitched in two games during the American run to the WBC Final against Venezuela.

Those games were hard fought, and Skenes gave his all for the country on the world stage. It’s possible that the interruption to the usual spring routine he had is having a real impact on his game. It’s also possible that, as is the case with some players, the grind of a major league season is wearing him down a little right now.

But whatever it is, he looks like a guy who might benefit from a bit of a breather.

Now, there is no way that the Pirates would willingly skip a Skenes start. But, if they can hold on until the All Star break, they might have the chance to rest Skenes and his arm for a little. Assuming nothing changes schedule wise, Skenes is slated to start Tuesday, July 7th and Sunday, July 12th. That second game is the final before the All Star break, meaning Skenes would have the four days off for the break, plus the four starts coming out of the break filled by the rest of the rotation.

Even if he pitches in the All Star Game (which is, ironically, in Philadelphia), that’s one inning in a week and a half, and he can hopefully come back stronger in the second half.

Otherwise, it’s a tougher conversation we might need to have.